Tuesday, February 10, 2004

It looks like the races in Virginia and Tennessee are tightening, albeit probably too late for Edwards. CBS reports that
Kerry led an American Research Group poll of 600 Tennessee voters by 32 percent to Edwards 21 percent and Clark's 20 percent. Dean had 8 percent.

In Virginia, an ARG survey of 600 voters had 35 percent for Kerry, 22 percent for Edwards and 17 percent for Clark. Dean was at 9 percent.

Yesterday, it was 45-21 Kerry in Tennessee. What this shows is the unreliability of small sample polling, but even more dangerously, the tremendous effect the polls have on voter preferences/turnout. It's rainy here in Knoxville. Does that mean a light turnout, which probably doesn't help Edwards?

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